TrueNicks, a proprietary pedigree rating system was developed by Blood Horse Publications in partnership with Pedigree Research LLC, the development company of Pedigree Consultants.

Compatibility of stallions from one male line with mares from other sire lines has shaped the breed since the Eclipse/Herod cross of the late 18th century. Called nicks, these successful crosses–Hermit/Stockwell, Lexington/Glencoe, Bend Or/Macaroni, Phalaris/Chaucer–have made a profound impact on the development of the Thoroughbred. In the modern era, the prolific Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer cross has produced outstanding racehorses and sires such as Kingmambo, Distorted Humor, Elusive Quality, Thunder Gulch, and Grand Slam.

Computers have now made it possible to measure and rate nicks, which has given rise to a commercial market for such statistics. Though popular, the nick ratings offered to the public to date have been compromised by incomplete data. This inevitably yields results based on hypothetical rather than real opportunity. This statistical gap was the impetus behind the development of TrueNicks.

Unlike other ratings that are calculated on the basis of hypothetical opportunity among a limited group of horses, the TrueNicks rating utilizes the database of The Jockey Club – the world’s most complete records of Thoroughbreds and their performance — to produce a sophisticated rating based on all foals for a given cross.

With the entire database of The Jockey Club at its disposal during development, the TrueNicks rating was calibrated on a test group of over 100,000 horses of racing age. Converting the raw TrueNicks score to a letter rating – A to D and F, as in the academic system – reveals some intriguing results that verify the existence of nicks across a whole population. For example:

1. While only 13% of the entire Thoroughbred population earn “A” rankings (A to A++), 37% of the stakes winners rate as “A’s.”
2. Horses rated “B” or better (B to A++) represent just 30% of the entire population, yet 3 out of 4 (77%)  stakes winners rank “B” or better.
3. Almost half of Thoroughbreds in general–44%–are on the low end of the scale (rated “C” through “F”), yet only two in 25 stakes winners (8%) have these lower rankings.

TrueNicks is a powerful mating tool but like all pedigree analysis programs they are one part of the picture and should be weighted as such. The developers of TrueNicks strongly recommend that you consider all factors when planning your matings including the desired physical outcome of the resultant foal and seek, where appropriate, advice on the mating. TrueNicks is an expression of one specific aspect of the pedigree, that of the sire line/broodmare sire line cross. From our studies in developing TrueNicks, looking at over 100,000 horses, it is clear that there is a strong correlation between the sire line affinities and success, as expressed by wins in stakes events.

That said, there are a number of reasons not to blindly follow a rating without due consideration of class, conformation, and aptitude. While the rating is a wonderful tool to apply when trying to determine primus inter pares – first among equals – common sense must be used when considering the class of the pedigree.

After all, we must never forget that at the end of the day, we are attempting to breed racehorses and not ratings.

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