A couple of weeks ago, Byron had a look at some value for money U.S. stallions, and in another post last week, I promised that I would try and do the same. 

Although the majority of more expensive horses – whose fees have generally been cut the most drastically in outright dollars – look value compared to the last year or two (and will probably do so again when it comes time to sell the yearlings), I’ve limited this study to horses standing at $40,000 and below, this seeming to be a mark where an awful lot of breeders will be focusing this year. Most of the horses mentioned below have their most expensive crops yet to run, and will stand in 2009 at fees considerably lower than when those crops were conceived. The horses are taken in descending order of stud fee, and while these are sires that look particularly good plays this year, omission from the list shouldn’t be taken as implying that others don’t also represent good value. 

Forestry has undoubtedly suffered a blacklash from the disappointing four-year-old career of Discreet Cat, and the non-career of The Green Monkey, but he’s now down to $40,000, and has his most expensively conceived crops (sired at $100,000 and $125,000) yet to run. Discreet Cat  – pre Dubai was brilliant – and Forestry has previously sired such other smart performers as Diplomat Lady, Forest Danger, Smokey Glacken and Teton Forest. It’s also worth noting that his early career was not helped by the fact the he was perceived as an ideal cross for Mr. Prospector (yes, it fooled us too), where he’s consistently proved to be below opportunities with that line, other than Fappiano and Jade Hunter. 

We’re mentioning Malibu Moon here, not so much because he’s undervalued at his 2009 fee of $40,000, but because we wanted draw attention to how easy it is to overlook that he’s still mostly working off very inexpensively sired crops. His first four crops were sired very cheaply in Maryland, and his first Kentucky crop – now three-year-old – were from a season at $10,000, and include graded winners Raw Silk and By the Light. His fourth crop, now two, were sired at $30,000. From that group he so far has 22 juvenile winners, and four stakes winners, including graded winner Sara Louise, and he still has another 80 foals of 2006 that are yet to run. His next two crops were sired at $30,000 and $40,000.

In similar vein, we’re giving a call to Broken Vow, because we think his 2009 fee of $30,000 is going to look cheap further on up the road. He’s been working off crops sired at $10,000, and has 19 stakes winners, seven graded, including such talented runners as Unbridled Belle, Cotton Blossom and Private Vow. He has crops sired at $15,000 and $25,000 to come. 

Dixie Union has been Mr. Consistent with his first five crops, getting six, six, four, five and four stakes winners (the last of these being two-year-olds of 2008). It’s the the record of a horse who could just break out, and his next two crops, sired at $40,000 and $50,000 (his highest fees to date) might provide that opportunity. Even if he just keeps the beat, he’s great value at $35,000 for the coming year. 

Johannesburg made a flying start, with 13 first crop stakes winners (including two four-year-old graded scorers, one grade one). Given what happens to commercial sires in seasons two, three and four, that pace was never going to be maintained, but he’s working his way through that potentially sticky patch pretty well, with second crop graded winners Eaton’s Gift, Ten Meropa and Jupiter Pluvius, and 2008 juvenile graded scorers Stefer and African Skies (both in Europe). His 2008 and 2009 crops were conceived at $65,000 (consideredably more than his previous offspring), so at $35,000 he has to look worth a shot.

By coincidence the next horse we come to is Johannesburg’s close relative Tale of the Cat. His runners may not have epitomized the sheer brilliance he displayed in his breathtaking King’s Bishop Stakes (gr. II) win, but he’s sired some very nice horses, and some important new dimensions are becoming apparent. One is that with his son, Lion Heart, making a very promsing start with his first crop, he’s a potential sire of sires. Two is that he’s beginning to demonstrate quite a lot of versatility as regards racing surface: his current high-class turf three-year-old Gio Ponti just made a successful switch to all-weather, and he’s also got several nice turf runners, including a 2008 European juvenile group winner. That one stays in training for 2009, as do Gio Ponti, and two-time grade one scorer Tale of Ekati. His 2008 and 2009 crops are conceived at $65,000, which bodes well.

Bernstein sired just 166 named foals in his first four Northern Hemishpere crops – a total that has been surpassed by some stallions in a single year. He has 13 stakes winners from those crops, including graded winners Berbatim and Toll Taker, and Champion Japanese Two-Year-Old Goshawk Ken. His “rebound” crop are two-year-olds of 2008, and three are graded stakes winners, including the grade one winning Dream Empress. He’s also been an exceptional sire in Argentina with his Southern Hemisphere crops. The current two-year-old crop was still only sired at $15,000, and he has runners conceived at $25,000, $30,000 and $30,000 to come. 

We mentioned Discreet Cat with regard to his sire, Forestry. He began his career at $40,000  for 2008, and that has to make his 2009 fee of $25,000 extreme value. As a three-year-old he was something extremely special, and his Cigar Mile (gr. I) was approaching  Dr. Fager (in this pedigree through Forestry) territory.

 We hear he’s full, but Exchange Rate looks a very nice play for $25,000. He’s had four crops, 18 stakes winners, six graded, and two grade one. The crop that will be born in 2009 will be his first sired at more than $10,000, so this is a pretty impressive beginning. 

We’ve always quite liked Grand Slam, and we certainly like him at this year’s advertised $25,000. He has ten stakes winners this year, including grade one winner Visionaire, and his 2008 two-year-old crop (conceived at a fee of $85,000) has nearly 80 horses that have yet to start. He also has big crops sired at $50,000 and $35,000 to run, so there should be something of note to come in the next few years. 

Langfuhr – a son of Danzig, like Exchange Rate – doesn’t seem as if he’s every going to become commercial, but for a racehorse sire he’s extraordinary value at $20,000. He’s sired three Canadian Champions; U.S. Champion Older Horse Lawyer Ron, and four other grade one winners. He’s now also shaping like a potentially very useful broodmare sire. 

Another who started in Florida – like Exchange Rate – Songandaprayer had a sensational first crop that produced six stakes winners, including graded winners Songster, What A Song, Praying For Cash and He’s Got Grit. As is typical for a less expensive sire, his next crops haven’t been at quite the same level, but he has added eight more stakes winners. He now has three crops to come, sired at $35,000, $45,000 and $45,000, which makes you think he has to be worth a shot in 2009 at $22,500. 

Yes It’s True - who also started in Florida - earned a mentioned here a couple of weeks ago. From first four crops – that’s all his runners three and up – were sired at a fee of $10,000. From those crops he has 25 stakes winners, eight of them graded, including grade one winner Proud Accolade. His current two-year-olds were sired at $25,000, and then he has three crops conceived at $35,000, and with that in mind, he looks worth considering at his 2009 fee of $22,550.

We’d have to say that Mizzen Mast is a horse who has won us over. The son of Cozzene is now third leading third crop sire, and has ten stakes winners, in his first two crops, four graded, including grade one winner Mast Track. Another third season horse is Officer. He has the typical profile of the fast commercial horse who started relatively inexpensively. He sired ten stakes winners in his first crop, four in his second (including the graded stakes winning two-year-old filly Officer Cherrie), and two in his third (current two-year-olds). What’s really interesting here is that he has 2008 and 2009 crops to come sired at $40,000, as opposed to the $15,000 fee at which his 2008 two-year-old and yearling crop were sired. 

Champion Sprinter Smoke Glacken has been a very consistent sire, and at $17,500, he looks a really nice way to get a mare off to a good start. He’s had a very solid year in 2008, with eight stakes winners, and seven juvenile stakes horse, four of them stakes winners. Lifetime, he has nine graded scorers including grade one winner Irish Smoke, millionaire Smok’n Frolic, and Read the Footnotes, now a promising freshman sire. His next three crops to run were sired at $30,000, $25,000 and $25,000. At the other end of the distance scale, if you want a horse who can get a classic-distance runner, Thunder Gulich, for $15,000 is hard to beat.  To jog the memory, his best in the Northern Hemisphere include Point Given, Sain, Circular Quay, Balance, Tweedside and Sense of Style – grade one winners all. 

Van Nistelrooy is probably going to have to overcome some uneven crop quality and quantity if he’s going to become a commercial stallion, but he looks like a very decent sire of runners. He sired eight Northern Hemisphere first crop stakes winners, five of them group or graded, one grade one. His Southern Hemishpere crop is pretty good. If you’re not relying on market perception, this is a horse with a lot of potential for the money. 

Word on the street is that Candy Ride is full, and we tend to be wary about jumping in the year after a bright freshman crop, but for $12,500, and with the usual caveats about consistency from relatively inexpensive commercial horses, he has made an awfully good start: three first crop two-year-olds stakes winners, two graded, and a total of six stakes horses , two grade one placed. And this isn’t a horse who background suggests that his offspring will be best at two. 

If you want a reflection of the times, consider City Zip. In 2008, he has 11 stakes winners, incuding the undefeated grade one winner Bustin Stones, and undefeated multiple graded stakes winner Run Away And Hide, and he drops from $15,000 to $12,500. His current weanling crop were sired at $20,000, so represent his best mares to date. Another fast horse at a similar price is Orientate, who has grade one winning fillies Intangaroo and Lady Joanne, and graded winner Successful Outlook in his first crop (four-year-olds of 2008). 

Pure Prize made a very bright start with eight stakes winners, including graded scorers  Birdbirdistheword and Cowgirls Don’t Cry, but instead of fading away like many relatively inexpensive sires, he came right back with four more stakes winners, including grade one winning millionaire Pure Clan in his second crop.  He needs a correct mare, but this is a very good racehorse sire for the money. 

Apparently he’s already full, but Holy Bull is a horse that you have to like for $10,000. It’s not a lot to pay for a horse who has a Champion Two-Year-Old, a Kentucky Derby winner, and four other grade one winners on his resume. 

By A.P. Indy, out of a Storm Cat mare whose dam is a sister to Miswaki, Jump Start, always appeared to have a shot to make the grade. Despite having retired at just $10,000, he’s currently fourth leading third crop sire. He’s been represented by 14 stakes winners from those crops, including graded scorers Sir Whimsey and Jump On In. He has a crop sired at $20,000 in the pipeline, and is now back at $10,000. 

Finally, Doneraile Court, is shaping as a typical “rebound” horse with the first crop sired after his impressive freshman season. That crop has supplied seven winners to date, including the grade one winner Ariege, and graded scorer Sporting Art. He’s also doing well in South American, and one of his Chilean crop, Cocoa Beach, won the Beldame Stakes (gr. I) and the Matriarch Stakes (gr. I). There aren’t too many better ways of getting a runner for $7,500.

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